There is no new thing under the sun.
– The Bible
Disclosure first: This piece might be sacrilegious to many value investors. In Nov 2013 (yes, the last Bitcoin “bubble”), I put a small percent of my net worth then into Bitcoin. I have been holding and plan to hold them until it reaches my estimated value (showed below). Please do NOT see this piece as a defense to Bitcoin critics or as investment advices (In fact, I am always ready to change my view, however I just didn’t come across convincing counter-arguments. Or put it differently, I’ve been most of the critics’ place and held similar suspicion before but changed later). I see this piece as an alternative thinking framework to a potential significant invention in human history, and I welcome any sort of comments/feedbacks/critiques.
A few lemmas I want to establish before going further:
- The universe we live in consists of two and only two elements: energy and information. (mass, or material, could be unified to energy by Einstein’s famous equation: E = MC^2)
- Bitcoin’s value is binary (i.e. it should either 0 or something very large, there is no middle ground)
- If “intrinsic value” is defined as “present value of expected cash flow from a value producing asset”, Bitcoin (as well as all kinds of money) has NO intrinsic value.
- Global governments as a whole, is not as prudent and resposible as developed counties’.
- I have been wrong and could be wrong on Bitcoin